Posts Tagged ‘weather forecast’
Precious Dew
Any moisture in a drought becomes all the more precious, so a little dew in the morning takes some of the edge off how harsh it feels outside. The dew also causes all the overnight spider webs in the pasture to become highly visible in the low light of the rising sun.
The horses seem to be tolerating the dry and dusty conditions with their typical demonstration of coping skills.
In their favor, the lack of wetness has inhibited the fly populations to a significant degree. However, it has also drawn a large number of bees to hang out around the horses’ automatic waterer. Cyndie put out some apple cider vinegar-baited traps and tried a couple of bee spray applications to discourage the establishment of a hive in the body of the Ritchie waterer.
Paddock Lake has become nothing more than a dug-out depression good for dust baths.
It’s getting hard to imagine how much rainfall it will take to ever fill that crater again. With the month of September just days away, the outdoors present a distinct feeling of an early onset of fall, minus the cooler temperatures.
Maybe we’ll get a wet October, which doesn’t seem unusual at all, but I don’t recall rain in the tenth month of the year historically amounting to the level of moisture we will need to put a dent in the dryness that has occurred this summer. I’d like to hope for a lot of snow over winter to give us a kick of moisture during the spring melt next year, but the strong El Niño is expected to result in a warmer winter with less snow in the Twin Cities.
I’m getting what pleasure I can from the early morning blankets of dew until the next rain event. There’s a tease in the forecast of a 70% chance on Saturday, but I’m not holding my breath. We are hosting guests for lunch that day, so maybe that will increase the chances. One can hope.
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Indoor Projects
Staying indoors, away from the smoke, was our priority yesterday, and it led to some interesting projects around the house. I’m trying to find items I may have stored in various locations over the last ten years. There’s a lot of guesswork involved. One interesting result from my searching has been finding other things I didn’t know still existed, like 40-year-old photos and an odd document or two.
I pulled out an old hard drive in a search for videos and found that an internal connector had broken loose from the circuit board where the USB cable connects. That’s one I probably won’t be able to fix myself, but I did find out how to get the plastic cover off by searching the internet.
It didn’t get as oppressively hot yesterday, but Cyndie still provided the horses with some extra cooling methods. Since they are stuck breathing the smoky air, we can at least help take the edge off the heat. Mia is still the one most likely to take advantage of the shade sail protection. You can see in the photo above that Mix is in the vicinity, but on the other side of the fence.
We’ve had some big storm clouds billow up nearby, but they’ve been just to our east and moving away from us. A rainstorm would be a welcome way to scrub the air and bring down temperatures a little bit. Unfortunately, the ten-day forecast doesn’t currently have any hints of rain at all. What it does have is some days with high temperatures not even reaching the 80s (F). Seventy-degree summer days are not something you will hear me complain about.
By the end of the day yesterday, it seemed like our air was getting a little better. There is a glimmer of hope for improvement moseying its way in. I’m hoping to get back outside today to do some trail trimming through the woods. It’s getting to be so jungle-like that a few of the pathways have become hard to detect.
That’s not very different than the hunting I’ve been doing in search of things I stashed somewhere in the house ten years ago.
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Unnecessary Roughness
I’m throwing a penalty flag on the weather for unnecessary roughness. I don’t know what forecast model Mia uses to make her decisions, but the ones I was reviewing last night looked unfairly brutal. When Asher and I headed out to feed the horses late in the afternoon yesterday, precipitation was just starting to fall. It was coming down mostly as snow, but very wet and sticky snow.
The bigger problem was the angry wind pushing those icy crystals sideways with gusts over 30 mph.
I tried three different times yesterday to sweet-talk Mia into accepting a blanket, but I failed every time. She wasn’t buying my sales pitch. I even tried enlisting the help of Mix and Light in coercing her cooperation, but Mia ran from their attention just like she did from me.
That picture above shows the typical fracture in the herd these days. Mia is the odd horse out, per usual.
As Asher and I were making our way back toward the house, I spotted that Mia had lain down for a rest at the top of the rise.
She certainly doesn’t show any signs of being stressed to be the loner. Instead, I’d describe her as showing a growing confidence in being independent of the others.
I just hope she knows what she is up against with these two spring storms barreling over us between last night and next Monday. There wasn’t a lot of snow accumulation by the time I went to bed last night, but the wind was pretty fierce. It sounds like that will be the easier of the two events.
Sunday will be bringing a lot more snow. Around a foot of accumulation is possible. Cyndie is currently scheduled to return on Monday, so I will need to prioritize clearing the driveway so she can get in. Deep snow is not a great welcome home when returning from Florida.
I imagine she might consider that a case of unnecessary weather roughness.
She’ll get no argument from me.
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Snow Likely
It’s just weather. We’ve dealt with it before. Maybe that’s why I’m dreading it so much, in advance. We awoke to a continuing gray fog looming over the landscape, one that freezes on surfaces, making navigating on foot treacherous.
I opened up my weather app to learn we are under a Winter Storm Watch, the description of which is my worst sort to suffer:
* …Snow likely, possibly heavy at times. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 8 inches. A light glazing of ice is possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
I loathe clearing snow when the accumulation has started with rain that then freezes with snow welded into it. It’s not always frozen, though. The fast-falling snow can insulate the surface to create deep snow with a heavy, wet unfrozen layer at the bottom. Miserable to plow. Sticks to the blade. Becomes too heavy to push. Or, freezes to the surface so it can’t be removed by shovel or blade.
Asher kept an eye out for critters lurking about in the fog this morning while the horses had their noses in the feed buckets.
We are weighing the options for the best time to blanket the three horses before they get wet, but not so soon that they get sweaty, since the temperature remains above freezing in the hours before the storm kicks up.
Our plan to have the kids come hang out with us tomorrow is wrecked by the risk of nasty weather. However, lest you think I’ve become a surly old grump, there is a silver lining to acknowledge.
We were originally planning to be up at the lake place for a few days before then driving to Grand Rapids, MN, to spend New Year’s Day with our friends, Barb & Mike. It was the news of hay being delivered on the 31st that had prevented us from going to the lake.
That change means we are home to deal with the arrival of oodles of messy precipitation and high winds. If we were up north when the storm hit, the person who was scheduled to feed the horses wouldn’t have been able to get up our driveway unless they used snowshoes.
How great that it worked out that we will be home! I just need to get the snow cleared by Wednesday so the hay delivery can go smoothly. As soon as it’s all in the shed, we hope to hightail it north to Grand Rapids.
See. We don’t look grumpy at all. Although that photo captured us on Christmas night at her brother’s house. I reserve the right to change my expression while clearing snow all day on Monday.
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Fast December
Does anyone else feel like the first week of December has passed in a blink? I’m going to need to start planning my decorations for Valentine’s Day soon. I’m not sure I can remember where my red hearts sweater is stashed. I’ll need to dig it out for all the Valentine’s Day celebrations people will be hosting.
Of course, I jest. February is too far over the horizon today. I’m busy getting ready for New Year’s Day. Meanwhile, Cyndie is getting a head start on some of her holiday treat-making for December festivities.
Cookies aren’t far behind.
I’m biding my time until the weekend bake-athon by working hard to stay awake while trying to finish reading a Bruce Springsteen biography, walking Asher through the snow –which he is absolutely loving– watching big matchups between NCAA & NFL teams in US football (Indiana winning the Big Ten Championship!), and taking photos of scenes that catch my eye.
How about those shadow patterns in the snow on the back deck? Cool, eh?
Today is primed to deliver a fresh batch of flakes if the predictions prove accurate.
…POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY, ACCUMULATING SNOW AND VERY GUSTY WINDS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO WESTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…
The forecast map last night placed us in a band indicating a span of possibilities from 1-5 inches. That’s a pretty safe range for them to predict without being wrong, but as they often add, advisory zones may shift as the system advances. We could get more, we could get less.
At least I’ve got the ATV plow finally set up correctly and ready to face the task at hand. If I end up spending a few days clearing snow, I expect to check the calendar and find we are suddenly just hours away from Christmas.
December is flying by in a flash! Make sure you are staying off the naughty list!
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Reclaiming Fences
In addition to regaining the upper hand on our trails, I think I mentioned that I’ve worked some fence lines, too. Yesterday, after I got home from a successful morning of shopping, I strapped on the Stihl power trimmer and headed to the far side of the hay field to make the fence visible again.
I burned through two tanks of gas but probably haven’t reached the halfway point yet. It’s taking so long because we didn’t get after this earlier and now the grass is so tall and thick it takes twice as long to knock it all down.
The days to departure for my week of biking and tenting are dwindling faster than the amount of work I’d like to complete around the property can be achieved. I’m splitting my attention between tending to things outdoors and gathering my gear in the house to pack. Half attention to each goal tends to result in half-sized results for both.
It is what it is. In the end, time always wins. I’ll get done what I can and pack up and go when it is time to go.
As of last night, my weather app showed this forecast for Saturday through Thursday: an alternating percentage chance of storms or rain each day, 50%; 40%; 50%; 40%; 50%; 40%.
Oh, joy.
Like I’ve said, that’s why we call it adventure!
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Blowing In
When Asher and I set out on our routine morning walk today, the sky was filled with heavy-looking clouds that cast a dark mood over the landscape. The weather forecast warned of strong winds but we weren’t feeling that on the ground yet. The blanket of low clouds overhead, however, was moving past at a high rate of speed.
It was as if the blue sky was blowing in.
The horses radiated a deep calm as they consumed their feed from the buckets. That sharply contrasted with the barn pigeons that were cooing with an insistence that bordered on drastic urgency. Maybe it was egg-laying time.
The ground surface around the overhang is so dry I should be celebrating freedom from coping with massive levels of mud but the reality it reflects is the threat of drought that hovers near. I had time to contemplate the current conditions because Light and Mix were both taking their sweet time about emptying the feed buckets I was waiting to retrieve.
I treasure that we have settled into a routine that allows them to eat at their individually chosen leisurely paces as opposed to the racing randomness that was happening not that long ago. There are still moments when we need to convince one or two of the horses to get out of each other’s way to end up at what has become their designated positions, but once they get there, extra shenanigans rarely interfere.
The deep calm that materializes is something I don’t take for granted.
In the time it has taken me to finish my breakfast and write this, the wind has arrived at ground level and a fresh blanket of clouds has blown in. With a little luck, maybe it could blow some needed precipitation our way.
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Birdbrain Decision
You’d probably think my preeminent focus on LOVE above all other distractions in life would make February 14th a special day for me. Uh-uh. I generally refer to it in jibes at the marketing of it and other holidays aimed at coercing of consumers to spend their hard-earned sums of money on barely affordable things.
Still, I’m not above throwing out a “Be Mine” to sweethearts or favorite desserts every so often.
Maybe it’s hard for me because I love you all. That’s more cards, chocolates, and flowers than I can manage.
Today, I’m here to report the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory that includes our county and mentions SNOW ACCUMULATION! of 3 to 4 inches overnight tonight. I will not be holding my breath in anticipation, but if it falls and if it accumulates, that would be a welcome change, to say the least.
In preparation, I raked up some of the piles of leaves that had blown around outside the barn and ended up in places I shovel and plow after snowfalls. I hope that didn’t jinx the possibility of us getting a fresh white blanket over our landscape.
I also raked leaves so I could boast that I did so in the month of February. That is a first in my lifetime.
Is that a birdbrain decision? I don’t think so. That’s certainly not why I chose the title for today’s post. No, that comes from the behavior we observe of the pigeons that have chosen our barn overhang as their favorite place to be.
We are not fans. Their flapping and noisy footsteps on the metal roof, incessant cooing, and way too much excrement (on the horse’s placemats of all places!) put barn pigeons on our list of annoyances begrudgingly tolerated.
Recently, we have seen an increase in activity that has me thinking they may not be growing in number as much as I suspected. Their egg-laying decisions don’t seem all that compatible with procreation.
Maybe if it snows they will find the landing a little more forgiving but underfoot where horses are active seems to qualify for what people have come to mean by the term “birdbrain.”
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More Melting
A local meteorologist on the radio pointed out the previous two days were our first pair of consecutive days of temperatures in the 40s (F) since December when we experienced a tornado in the area. Two days of melting is visibly changing our snowscape.
As we made our way around the north loop trail yesterday, I found it interesting that no old footprints were apparent along the pathway, yet the trail we repeatedly walk was clearly outlined.
I suspect that blowing snow had filled the path while we were up at the lake over the weekend and now it’s all being glazed level with the surrounding snowpack. We trudged through it seconds after I took that picture, taking the first steps toward reestablishing our typical packed trail.
The first week of March is predicted to bring us melting temperatures during the days and several chances for a mix of precipitation.
We noticed yesterday afternoon that the horses are starting to shed a little bit of their winter coat. The prospect of wet precipitation and near-freezing temperatures is an unwelcome combination when it comes to horses. As is our normal practice, we have closed some gates to separate the herd into two groups of two so there will be less competition over access to the protection of the barn overhang.
After the anxiety they showed the last time we moved them into stalls in the barn, I am not as quick to choose that option for keeping them dry. We are going to make the overhang as available as possible and leave it up to them to take advantage of it, or not.
You know the old saying… “You can provide a horse some shelter from the rain, but you can’t make him (or her, or them) use it.”
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Battening Hatches
In the shadow of the storm that ravaged the middle of the U.S. last week, the prediction for our area this evening is a little intimidating. High winds and December thunderstorms after record warmth in the afternoon have us more on edge than usual.
Any time it rains here in the winter I wince. Everything about it is wrong. It will likely be a night to bring the horses inside the barn to protect them from getting soaking wet ahead of the drop in temperatures to below freezing.
The insolating properties of their winter coats don’t work so well when wet.
How come penguins don’t have that problem? Polar bears? Whatever.
If we had hatches, we would be battening them down today.
Last night’s sky at sunset was just dramatic enough to feel like a hint of what lies ahead. I will be very happy to find out our concerns were unnecessary if nothing significant materializes.
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Relative Something 