Posts Tagged ‘meteorology’
Not Obvious
It’s not obvious by this morning’s sunny conditions that we are in store for what threatens to be the largest snowfall of the previous winter season. All hail the impressive technology and communication from the world’s meteorological services.
We received a most genteel of precursor snowfalls overnight Thursday.
No plowing required. Even though some surfaces were warm enough to melt the snow almost as fast as it fell, the remaining flakes were light and fluffy.
The predictions for tomorrow’s snow claim the consistency will be more like wet cement. Oh, joy. Especially because they are also tossing out threats of snow amounts measured in feet, not inches.
If that plays out as described, our tree limbs are in great jeopardy. With luck, our location will receive a lesser amount of the predicted ranges.
There is a hitch in this long-duration storm we are being warned about in that it may change to rain for a while. That will diminish the accumulating snow totals, for sure. This is one of the rare times when I will be pleased if we get rain instead of snow.
The paddocks are a little too dry in general lately, which makes for pleasant footing today, but I need to make myself grateful for the mud this weather will likely bring. The moisture will be a blessing for growing things.
On my way back to the house on this brilliantly calm morning after feeding horses, I could hear a chorus of cracking and popping sounds coming from the trees.
I paused to observe one of my new fascinations since living here.
Pine cones were opening up in the warm rays of the sun. As I stood watching, I discovered I was hearing a combination of some residual snow and ice melting along with the popping pine cones.
For the first time since I became aware of the wonders of this amazing process, I was looking directly at one of the cones as a scale popped open.
I don’t imagine the trees have any awareness of the fate that will arrive tomorrow and last for a couple of days. I wouldn’t have a clue if it weren’t for the warnings of our weather services.
Today looks to be a beautiful sunny calm before the storm. It is not obvious that tomorrow will bring a big change.
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Well Warned
Modern meteorology provides impressive advanced warning of serious weather coming our way, but knowing about it so far in advance and hearing about the impending extremes over and over for days in a row tends to inflate the impact beyond reality.
Sure, it’s going to get cold. Thanks for letting us know. Now talk about something else.
Cyndie ordered some fancy heaters for the chicken coop, hoping they arrive quick enough to take the edge of the bitter cold our birds will be subject to with nothing but their fluffed feathers to insulate them. One protection we read about involves covering their wattles and combs with petroleum jelly to stave off frostbite. We’d have to catch them, first.
Neither of us wanted to put the chickens (or ourselves) through the added stress of that escapade.
Yesterday it was above freezing here. By Sunday, they are telling us the high temperature for the day won’t make it out of the negative digits.
We appreciate the warning.
Now I’m going to think about something else.
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Snow Accumulating
Melting snow, slowly making its way off the barn’s steel roof.
I’ve never had much luck interpreting what the weather was going to do next, but I have always had a keen interest in what’s happening in our skies. That is, I’m interested when the weather presents us with something dramatic, like storms, or record-setting extremes. I think meteorology is fascinating.
As a result, and since I am lousy at predicting on my own, I make frequent use of weather web sites. As I write this, we are currently under a winter storm warning, and I have been checking the radar frequently. I started checking on Sunday. The storm was predicted to start in the early morning hours of Monday.
When I was rudely awakened, several times, by the crashing and banging activity of raccoons on the deck in those wee hours of the a.m., I took advantage of the motion-light which had triggered, to find out the deck was still bone dry. That just added suspense to what daylight would reveal, at the break of dawn.
Daylight revealed nothing. Still dry as could be. I checked with folks at work, on the other side of the Twin Cities, and learned they were getting accumulating snow. I immediately checked the radar, to see how far off it was, and what I found was pretty useless. The radar looked as if it was already on top of us and snow was falling over Beldenville. Maybe, but just not at my house. Or, maybe it was one of those situations where snow falling from the clouds was drying up before it could reach the ground. Whatever.
Finally, by 12:10 p.m. yesterday afternoon, I started to see some falling flakes. However, by 12:18 p.m., it had already stopped. By the end of yesterday, all we had received was a trace of snow. What was going on?
I checked Minnesota Public Radio’s Updraft weather blog. The post said they knew all along that the snow accumulation from this event would come in two waves, and the second wave would be the heavier amount. It also indicated that their computer model “insisted” that the area of greatest accumulation remained directly over the metro area, into western Wisconsin.
The prediction for the timing of the heaviest snowfall was now the early morning hours of Tuesday. I made an advance decision to stay home from the day-job today, based on the warning of the ‘insisting’ computer model.
I don’t dare hold ill feelings for the discrepancies between meteorologist’s predictions, and what really takes place. I certainly am not able to do any better.
If all goes as planned (hoped), I will wake up (from a full night’s sleep), to find a massive accumulation of beautiful white snow, and then snuggle back under the covers to sleep in, giving the storm more time to move out of the area, toward the east. The afternoon will then be spent plowing and shoveling.
That is, if the weather doesn’t deviate from what the computer model insists should happen.
Relative Something 